World war risk: the live global tension index
The global tension index stands at 21.2 out of 100. That is simply 100 minus the average live safety score of every country we track — a measured aggregate, not a forecast, and deliberately not a probability of world war.
- 21.2Global tension index (100 − world average safety score)
- 8Countries with active combat
- 22Countries in the high-risk or extreme bands
Most "world war risk" numbers on the internet are invented. This one is arithmetic you can check: every country's score is public on its own page, and the index is their average subtracted from 100. When it rises, it is because many countries are simultaneously carrying more recorded threat pressure — not because a model has an opinion about escalation.
The two tables below show where combat is confirmed today and where nuclear threats and incidents are being recorded. The Nuclear index has no effect on the Safety Index and is not a probability of nuclear war. Both come from the same continuously updated feed as the live map.
Countries with active combat right now
Confirmed independently by at least two models within the last 24 hours.
| # | Country | Score | 0–100 | Most recent located report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yemen | 17.7 | Taiz — Two air strikes target Houthi positions south of Taiz city, report says | |
| 2 | Palestine | 20.4 | Tulkarm — Palestinian youth injured by Israeli shrapnel during raid of occupied West Bank city | |
| 3 | Sudan | 22.0 | Dozens Killed in Airstrikes Near Sudan-Egypt Border | |
| 4 | Ukraine | 37.1 | Uman — Five people injured in Uman, Cherkasy region, as a result of a Russian UAV attack… | |
| 5 | Russia | 38.0 | Vladimir — Ukrainian drones reportedly strike Yandex data center, warehouses in overnight attack on… | |
| 6 | Lebanon | 45.5 | al-Mansouri — Israeli military shells several southern Lebanon areas overnight | |
| 7 | Saudi Arabia | 67.9 | Dhahran — Saudi says Houthi attacks sparked Aramco fire, wounded 4 in Riyadh | |
| 8 | Romania | 85.7 | Seven sailors missing after drones strike tankers near Romania’s Black Sea coast |
Where nuclear pressure is being recorded
Independent 0–100 context from doctrine changes, tests, threats and incidents at nuclear facilities. It has no Safety Index impact, is not an arsenal count and is not a probability of war.
| # | Country | Score | 0–100 | Nuclear index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Korea | 45.6 | 97.5 / 100 | |
| 2 | Russia | 38.0 | 85.4 / 100 | |
| 3 | Iran | 42.0 | 83.1 / 100 | |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 67.9 | 27.9 / 100 | |
| 5 | Belarus | 59.0 | 27.5 / 100 | |
| 6 | South Korea | 80.2 | 20.0 / 100 | |
| 7 | Pakistan | 43.7 | 19.0 / 100 | |
| 8 | Israel | 70.2 | 18.0 / 100 | |
| 9 | China | 66.4 | 15.0 / 100 | |
| 10 | Ukraine | 37.1 | 13.7 / 100 | |
| 11 | Guam | 89.0 | 9.9 / 100 | |
| 12 | India | 59.6 | 9.5 / 100 | |
| 13 | United States | 61.3 | 5.4 / 100 | |
| 14 | France | 75.2 | 5.1 / 100 | |
| 15 | United Kingdom | 78.3 | 5.0 / 100 |
Questions
- Is this the probability of World War 3?
- No, and we will not publish one. Nobody can honestly compute the odds of a world war, and a number that looks precise would be false precision. What this page gives instead is a transparent aggregate of measured conditions: how much of the world is currently under threat pressure, how many countries have combat on their territory, and where nuclear rhetoric is being recorded.
- How is the global tension index calculated?
- It is 100 minus the average live safety score of every country and territory we track. Nothing else goes into it, which means you can reproduce it from the public country pages. A rise means the average country is carrying more threat pressure than before.
- What would make this number spike?
- Simultaneous pressure across many countries — a wide conflict, a sanctions wave, a nuclear escalation reported across several states. A severe crisis confined to one country moves the world average very little, which is the point: this measures breadth, not intensity.