World war risk: the live global tension index
The global tension index stands at 19.7 out of 100. That is simply 100 minus the average live safety score of every country we track — a measured aggregate, not a forecast, and deliberately not a probability of world war.
- 19.7Global tension index (100 − world average safety score)
- 3Countries with active combat
- 20Countries in the high-risk or extreme bands
Most "world war risk" numbers on the internet are invented. This one is arithmetic you can check: every country's score is public on its own page, and the index is their average subtracted from 100. When it rises, it is because many countries are simultaneously carrying more recorded threat pressure — not because a model has an opinion about escalation.
The two tables below are the components worth watching: where combat is actually confirmed today, and where nuclear-category events and rhetoric are being recorded. Both come from the same continuously updated feed as the live map.
Countries with active combat right now
Confirmed independently by at least two models within the last 24 hours.
| # | Country | Score | 0–100 | Most recent located report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Russia | 21.8 | Yekaterinburg — Ukrainian forces reportedly target Wildberries warehouse in Yekaterinburg, over 1,600… | |
| 2 | Lebanon | 41.5 | Kafr Rumman — Israel launches fresh attacks across southern Lebanon | |
| 3 | Ukraine | 50.2 | Kyiv — Russia attacks Kyiv for another night as explosions, fires hit Ukraine's capital |
Where nuclear risk is being recorded
Countries carrying pressure in the nuclear category — doctrine changes, tests, threats, incidents at nuclear facilities. This is recorded rhetoric and events, not an arsenal count.
| # | Country | Score | 0–100 | Nuclear pressure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Korea | 32.4 | 11.9 / 12 | |
| 2 | Russia | 21.8 | 10.9 / 12 | |
| 3 | Iran | 33.4 | 10.0 / 12 | |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 66.7 | 3.4 / 12 | |
| 5 | Belarus | 57.8 | 3.3 / 12 | |
| 6 | South Korea | 84.3 | 2.4 / 12 | |
| 7 | Pakistan | 51.9 | 2.3 / 12 | |
| 8 | Israel | 51.4 | 2.2 / 12 | |
| 9 | China | 68.3 | 1.8 / 12 | |
| 10 | Ukraine | 50.2 | 1.6 / 12 | |
| 11 | Guam | 87.1 | 1.2 / 12 | |
| 12 | India | 69.8 | 1.1 / 12 | |
| 13 | United States | 74.7 | 0.6 / 12 | |
| 14 | United Kingdom | 89.2 | 0.6 / 12 | |
| 15 | France | 87.7 | 0.6 / 12 |
Questions
- Is this the probability of World War 3?
- No, and we will not publish one. Nobody can honestly compute the odds of a world war, and a number that looks precise would be false precision. What this page gives instead is a transparent aggregate of measured conditions: how much of the world is currently under threat pressure, how many countries have combat on their territory, and where nuclear rhetoric is being recorded.
- How is the global tension index calculated?
- It is 100 minus the average live safety score of every country and territory we track. Nothing else goes into it, which means you can reproduce it from the public country pages. A rise means the average country is carrying more threat pressure than before.
- What would make this number spike?
- Simultaneous pressure across many countries — a wide conflict, a sanctions wave, a nuclear escalation reported across several states. A severe crisis confined to one country moves the world average very little, which is the point: this measures breadth, not intensity.